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24 Feb 2019

TERMS OF REFERENCE:  CONFLICT, POLITICAL, ECONOMIC AND SECURITY ASSESSMENT (COPESA) SUPPORT TO THE FORMATION OF LOCAL GOVERNANCE STRUCTURES AND SYSTEMS, STABILIZATION AND PEACE DIVIDENDS IN SOMALIA

Job Description

TERMS OF REFERENCE:  CONFLICT, POLITICAL, ECONOMIC AND SECURITY ASSESSMENT (COPESA)

SUPPORT TO THE FORMATION OF LOCAL GOVERNANCE STRUCTURES AND SYSTEMS, STABILIZATION AND PEACE DIVIDENDS IN SOMALIA

PROJECT ID: FCA_ 11591

1.    BACKGROUND OF THE COPESA ASSESSMENT

In an effort to support the state building, local governance programming and social development plans undertaken by the Somali Federal Government, NIS-Foundation is taking the lead in the implementation of four years Stabilization and peace dividends Program in Somalia while Finn Church Aid(FCA) will seek to improve the ability and strengthen the capacity of the Federal Member States (FMS) to support the formation of functional and effective local council and administrations under project titled ‘’ Strengthening local governance structures for more accountable and inclusive Federal Member States in support of the Wadajir National Framework – Phase II’’ for a period of four(4) years. . In order to support a district formation process which the citizens of the target districts and the (s)elected and appointed leaders fully own, FCA and its consortium partners (CRD & EISA) plan to focus on four main areas of the Wadajir Framework developed in 2016. They include social reconciliation, civic dialogue and district council, administration formation and strategic communication.

The program expected result is to support the legitimacy and perception of effectiveness of the governance structures through the delivery of tangible peace dividends and support the formation of functional and effective local council and administrations. Based on lessons learnt on phase 1 and aligning to requirements of Wadajir National Framework for local governance, the district-wide conflict assessment will contribute to development of a conflict profile (in both English and Somali) for the target district using on the ground data as well as pre-existing sources for areas, which are not accessible. It is important to understand conflict dynamics, district clan demographics, key actors and stakeholders, spoilers, and administrative gaps when supporting the formation of district councils given local conflicts, have historically driven conflict in Somalia as well as understanding the existing power sharing structures.

Based on the local government laws passed by the FMS, it is important to understand the surrounding villages of each district in order to know the power sharing structures and clan dynamics of those districts and this are important items to consider during the DCF process.Given the role marginalization and historical grievances play at the local level, the conflict profile must focus on underlying conflict issues, triggers and hotspots in the entire district in order to mitigate future conflict.

In that light, FCA invites consultancy firms/persons under the project “Strategic Partnership for Sustainable Security” to conduct in-depth research/holistic analysis on the conflict, political economy and social dynamics of below identified project geographical locations in order to understand the distribution of political power and wealth between different clans, individuals ,conflict actors, local structures, potential triggers and to understand the historical grievances, real and perceived in justices and current conflicts which can impact the formation of inclusive district councils and administrations. On the other hand, NIS under RNE fund shall conduct PESA assessment in the district (Warta Nabada) of Mogadishu stadium.

2.    FCA target districts 

FCA project is targeting 10 districts in three federal member states and in consultation with key line ministries at the Federal Member States (FMS) there are pre-selected or identified districts for council formation and peace dividend work:

  • Hirshabelle Federal Member State: Jowhar, Bulo Burto, Balcad
  • Galmudug Federal Member State : Galcayo, Dusamareb and Adado
  • Jubaland Federal Member State: Afmadow, Doolow, Luuq and Belethawa or Bardere.

NB 1.: The final selection of the districts will be decided by the FMSs leadership upon meeting the selection criteria matrix developed and in consultation with MOIFAR, key actors/implementing partners. (See the attached selection matrix developed in the last phase)

The table below shows the key priorities districts/areas[1] for the district council formation and peace dividend work in phase one of the COPESA assessment.

Table 1: Target locations

State Region District
PHASE I Jubaland Gedo Dollow
Luuq
Lower Jubba Afmadow
Hirshabelle Middle Shabele Jowhar
Buleburte
PHASE II & III Galmudug Galgaduud Dhusamareb
Adaado
South Mudug Galkayo
Jubbaland Gedo Belethawa or Bardere

3.    RATIONALE, PURPOSE AND OBJECTIVES OF THE ASSESSMENT

The overall purpose of the COPESA is to give the programme a detailed holistic analysis on the district-wide conflict assessment, the political economy, to understand conflict dynamics, District clan demographics, key actors and stakeholders, spoilers, administrative gaps, the historical grievances, real and perceived in justices and current conflicts which can impact the formation of inclusive district councils and administrations in project locations.

To establish a basis for monitoring changes that may impact upon the stabilization of peace dividends objectives and operations over time. Special attention should be paid to analysis of women’s and youth rights and gender equality in project locations, especially on issues such as service delivery, women and youth representation in local councils, job opportunities and security for women. This information will be essential for understanding how the stabilization of peace dividends can maximize positive impacts.Detailed information should be available ahead of the implementation to assist project components ensure in achieving the tended landmark, thus bringing up the need for not only security information but further details about the economic, socio politics history of the area.

The specific objective:

  • Establish a clear picture of the political power distribution, social and security contexts in each programme location and how the activities/components of the programme are likely to respond and interact with these realities. It will be essential that the COPESA reports analyse how the activities in a given project location are specifically relevant to local dynamics and how this will support the programme’s broader objectives.
  • A conflict profile to be developedfor each district based on a holistic analysis of the proposed district conflict actors, local structures, potential triggers and to understand the historical grievances, real and perceived in justices and current conflicts which can impact the formation of inclusive district councils and administrations
  • Supporting any needed adjustments to the programme’s risk management strategy through early identification of un-flagged risks and recommending mitigations. Each COPESA report will provide a detailed explanation of the political economy of each project area, including causes of insecurity and conflict; main actors; conflict dynamics; and any recent significant political, economic, social or environmental developments. Such an analysis will help NIS to monitor potential risks as they evolve and develop appropriate mitigation strategies.
  • Political economy and power analyses should focus on unpacking agents’ motivations (incentives, interests, ideas), on understanding agency (strategy, organisation, power) and dynamics of change.
  • COPESA report will provide In-depth identification of main gender issues, barriers and challenges of women in participating of political and decision-making process separately for each district.

4.    SCOPE OF THE ASSESSMENT

Geographically, the assessment will be implemented in three Federal Member States, Hirshabelle, Galmudug and Jubbaland (see table 1). The COPESA will need to provide a detailed explanation of the conflict, political, economic, security situation of project locations (information can be extended to districts further when facts are sought in relation to the specific project). The COPESA assessment report is also aimed to provide a baseline to monitor changes on the context and dynamics as they occur

Conflict:                     Conflict analysis to examine the past, present, and possible future clan- and politically-based conflict and how this can impact on the district council formation process.

Understand the conflict dynamics in the project locations, district clan demographics, key actors and stakeholders, spoilers, administrative gaps, the historical grievances, real and perceived in justices and current conflicts in the areas.

Political:                     Current district and regional government in project locations and others with significant political influence; analysis of the strategic significance (political, military, symbolic, etc.) of the two chosen project locations in Somalia; local perceptions of the current political dispensation; locally identified priorities for the district administration; and district relations with / perceptions of the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS). Gender issues and the situation of minorities in the political and economic sphere.

Security:                     Main security actors in the district; local perceptions of the security situation; sources of past and current conflict, including local structural and systemic causes and more immediate-term contributing factors, such as drought, internally displaced people, insecurity, etc; an analysis on the likelihood for conflict to increase, decrease or remain stable for the programme period, ranking likely triggers that threaten peace and the factors most affecting them

Economic:                  Main businesses and business leaders in the district; local sources of livelihoods; local industry; business risks; trade routes; remittances; and taxation. The baseline should also document the relevance and capacities of different actors as they relate to project activities.

Social:                        District clan demographics and dynamics; means of communications within the district; existing forms of justice, religion and local decision making; an analysis of the factors that make the community more or less resilient to instability and conflict

Gender, Youth and

Human Rights:          It is highly relevant to integrate gender, youth and human rights considerations in the COPESAs, ensuring that the political, economy and conflict analyses include appropriate attention to gender, youth and human rights dimensions relevant to the programme. Issues relating to the non-discrimination and Do No Harm principle and also identification/evaluation the marginalized and minority groups in the programme’s areas of operation will be especially important.

4.1  COPESA ASSESSMENT QUESTIONS

The consultancy firm or person will determine the tools or questions to be used for the assessment and ensure the relevance, effectiveness, efficient, gender and youth responsive questionnaires are designed for the assessment.

4.2  METHODOLOGY

The COPESA assessment will be conducted jointly by FCA M&E Unit and external consultancy firm or personthat will support the team technically in formulating the interview questions, determining the methodologies and as well as producing quality report at the end the assessment period. The proposed consultancy firm or person is expected to come with an inception report, taking into consideration the nature of the project, thematic areas in focus and the context. Appropriate sampling technique with respective tools will be developed in consultation with FCA and NIS foundation team before commencement of the assessment.

The consultancy firm or person will be expected to apply mixed methods approach. These will involve reviewing the relevant project documents and relevant literature, meetings and interviews with a broad range of stakeholders including donor, project partners, local government representatives, the beneficiaries and community opinion leaders among others. The consultancy firm or person will be responsible forbriefing and debriefing with key stakeholders and production of the assessment report.

The consultancy firm or person will be required to carry out the exercise diligently, which will include;

  • Provide a detailed elaborate methodology and work plan, which will be shared and agreed upon with FCAbefore the start of the actual work.
  • Participating in the initial briefings with FCA,partner teams and government institutions to ensure that the assessment team is clear on the expectations of this COPESA.
  • Developing the COPESA assessment inception report highlighting the methodology to be used and the relevant tools which will be submitted to FCA and will be discussed and approved by FCAin consultation with the partners and relevant government entities before commencement of the field work.
  • Reviewing the TOR and other relevant literature in order to have adequate understanding of the key thematic areas in focus.
  • Discussion with FCA, the implementing partnersand other stakeholders including relevant government officials, CSOs, Community Advocates, youths, women and representatives of the marginalized groups, and opinion leaders to get the relevant data on the key thematic areas in focus.
  • Conducting field visits to collect data using the agreed upon methods and incorporate gender, youth and adequate representation of the target beneficiaries as well as strategic non-beneficiaries in the assessment.
  • Ensuring that the data is collected stored and analyzedprofessionally.
  • Presenting to FCA and partners the key findings and giving the team adequate opportunities to give feedback and agree on action points, lessons andrecommendations.
  • Submitting draft report to FCA for review, comments and inputswhich will be taken into consideration before submission of the final report.

4.3  SAMPLE SIZE:

The consultancy firm or person is required to determine the appropriate sample size in consultation with FCA and partners, taking into consideration the required key thematic areas.

5.    COPESA ASSESSMENT PROCESS

The assessment process comprises of three main phases. These include;

Phase I (Inception Phase): This is the preparatory phase. FCA places a lot of emphasis on this phase to ensure proper grounding of the assessment exercise. Key activities will include but not limited to the following;

  1. Internal consultations with the selected team (data collectors) on the assessment process. A number of sessions may be held depending on the need
  2. Literature review
  3. Submission & approval of an Inception Report reflecting the reviewed literature, the assessment methodology including the COPESA framework, detailed assessment work plan etc.
  4. Development of the data collection tools and their review and approval
  5. Planning for the logistics (data collection team/s generate logistics needs for discussion with FCA)

Phase II: Field Work: This phase will involve the actual field work. Key activities will include the following;

  1. Security clearance for the team to travel to the field by FCA/NIS Foundation
  2. Travel Approvals by FCA/NIS Foundation
  3. Actual field data collection

Phase III: Data Analysis and Reporting

This is the final phase whose activities will include the following;

  1. Debrief with FCA, NIS Foundation and partners upon return from the field on preliminary findings
  2. Data organization, cleaning, interpretation and analysis
  3. Compilation of the report
  4. Data validation workshop
  5. Finalization of the report and submission to FCA/NIS Foundation

Please Note: Activities in every phase must be completed before entry to the next phase.

  1. LOGISTICS AND COORDINATION

Partners will coordinate all the logistics on behalf of the assessment team as follows;

FCA (Lead Agencies)

  • Security advice to travel to the field and while in the field
  • Organize all the sessions with the assessment team/s in Mogadishu and/or in the field

Centre for Research & Dialogue (CRD)/Electoral Institute for Sustainable Democracy in Africa (EISA)

  • Identify and prepare all target respondents (government officials, CSOs, Community Advocates, youths, women and representatives of the marginalized groups) in all locations for recording of the Most Significant COPESA related stories (assessment team to provide a selection criteria)
  • Organize meetings & consultations with all the relevant project stakeholders in Mogadishu, in the States (government officials, CSOs, Community Advocates, youths, women and representatives of the marginalized groups)
  • Mobilize and convene the different respondents in all locations
  • Support to organize all the local travel arrangements in the target locations in consultation with FCA, NIS Foundation[2]& the consultant/s.
  • Support to organize for accommodation for the assessment team/s in the target locations in consultation with FCA, NIS Foundation and the assessment team
  • Avail relevant project team members for taking part the assessment with the consultant/s
  • Support to organize for translator for the assessment while in your location (if need be)
  • Provide office space and working desk to the consultant/s while in the field work (if need be)

8. ASSESSMENT TIMETABLE

The maximum timeframe for this assignment is 3 months (March-May 2019) that include preparation, field work, data analysis and report writing.The process starts on Mid-March 2019. The consultant/s is required to submit a detailed work plan on how the task will be rolled out.

  1. THE ASSESSMENT REPORT

Production of the report will be the responsibility of the consultant/s while FCA, NIS Foundation and the partners will be responsible for coordinating the exercise. The report shall be:

  • Produced in English language and should be simple in expression (jargon free).
  • Maximum of 40 pages. Short Annexes to be attached separately
  • The report format and text, should be on A4 paper size in Arial font size 11.
  • The consultant/s will deliver an electronic version of the assessment report in Word
  • Version by the agreed deadline and Eight (8) hard copies of the report in full color (where applicable)

9.1   OUTLINE OF THE ASSESSMENT REPORT

The assessment report should contain at MINIMUM different elements mentioned below. All parts should be clearly distinguished from each other and of sufficient quality.

  1. Cover page
  2. Acknowledgement
  3. Table of contents
  4. List of tables
  5. List of figures
  6. Executive summary comprehensive enough to highlight all the key aspects of the assessment. The summary should present a highlight of the methodology, key findings, summary of conclusions andrecommendations.
  7. Introduction section
  8. Literature review (should be precise and well linked to DCF’s focus)
  9. Methodology that clearly outlines the sampling procedures and the sample size, how the data was collected, analyzed andpresented with clear justification and limitations if any.
  10. Findings addressing all the assessment questions and the unexpected outcomes.
  11. Conclusions presenting summary of the findings on the basis of the questions.
  12. Lessons learned and recommendations which should be clearly related to the conclusions.
  13. Risk Analysis Matrix highlighting:
    • Best approaches to tackle possible spoilers
    • Possible drivers for DCF and their enabling activities
    • Inclusivity: Minority, Marginalized, disabled, gender and youth groups
  14. Report annexes that include the tools used in the assessment and the list ofrespondents.

10. DELIVERABLES

  • Planning meetings
  • Inception report
  • Assessment tools
  • Zero draft assessment report for internal review
  • Validation workshop in Mogadishu
  • Final assessment report addressing all objectives, assessment questions andincluding clear recommendations (Soft copy & 8 Hard Copies in full color to FCA/NIS Foundation)
  • Debriefing on the final findings
  • Risk analysis matrix

11. SKILLS AND QUALIFICATIONS REQUIRED

The desired specification and qualities of the consultant(s) are as hereunder:

  • Post Graduate qualification in Governance, Programmes Management, Political Science, Development Studies, Conflict Studies or Economics or any other relevant Social Science Degree from a recognizable university.
  • Minimum of 5 years’ experience in assessment work with proven track record
  • Skills and experience in evaluating governance and socio-economic projects with in-depth knowledge highly desirable.
  • Strong interpersonal and analytical skills.
  • Familiarity with the Somalia political, cultural and socio-economic context a must.
  • Demonstrable knowledge of Somalia security context, policy environment including human rights, State Building processes, the Provisional Constitution provisions, business environment, public participation, the clan dynamics and resultant segmentation indexes; and the law making processes.
  • Experience of effective interaction with local and national organizations, government institutions and marginalized communities in Somalia context.
  • Conversant with application of cross cutting themes like gender mainstreaming and gender and competency in advocacy; Rights Based Approach and Do No Harm Principle.
  • Good spoken and written communication skills in English. Somali language proficiency is a must. A female team member is highly recommended for purposes of conducting FGDs with women beneficiaries at the community level.
  • Proven experience of using participatory methods for data collection and analysis in assessments.
  • Ability to show case high quality products of similar tasks in similar contexts and elsewhere
  1. BUDGET (IN $) & PAYMENT MODALITIES

The consultant will be required to submit one consolidated quotations for all Phases (see table 1 for target districts in Federal Member States).Note, the consultant bears the tax liability for individual taxes hence the budget should not include VAT.

Payment Modalities

Deliverables Payment %
Upon approval of the Inception report 30%
Upon submission of 1st draft report 30%
Upon Approval of final report 40%

13. BIDS ASSESSMENT

Below is an indicative criterion for bids assessment

CRITERIA %
Quality of the document/bid 20
Skills / expertise of the assessment team 35
Methodology for structuring, data collection & analysis 20
Organization of tasks and timetable 10
Best value for money [ Quality, specification and experience] 15

14. TERMS OF CONTRACT

  • All documents and the data collected will be the property of FCA and will be treated as confidential and used solely to facilitate analysis. Where necessary, the respondents will not be quoted in the reports without their permission.
  • The data collector/s shall observe a high level of confidentialityof all the information divulged to them as relating to the contractor (FCA) and the partner’s operations in Somalia. No part of the information disclosed should be shared externally without prior approval/consultations with FCA/NIS Foundation. FCA/NIS Foundation remains the sole owner of the information generated through this task and will hold such information in trust for all the involved partners in this task.
  • The Consultant/s is responsible for payment of all social costs, other employment related costs and insurance contributions and for all other liabilities of a statutory nature.
  • The consultant/s will have to abide by FCA Conde of Conducts (COC), Child Safeguarding policy; its Security Protocols and any other relevant policies supplied to them verbally or in writing.
  • The Consultant shall also adhere to the security advice and protocols spelt out by the partner agencies while working with them in their respective locations. While security is relative, the duty to comply with the laid out procedures lies solely on the individual (contractee).
  • The consultant will provide a debriefing session in Mogadishu to present the main findings and recommendations
  • Copyright for the report will remain with FCA and NIS Foundation

15. SUBMISSION PROCESS

Consultant(s) who meet the above requirements should submit bids, which at minimum include the following:

  • Updated Curriculum Vitae that clearly spells out relevant qualifications and experience.
  • Suitability statement including a short summary of relevant competences and previous assessment work conducted; and commitment for availability for the entire assignment from Mid-March 2019
  • Detailed technical proposal outlining your interpretation of the TOR, proposed methodology, sample size and sampling procedure, detailed work plan and the assessment process among others (using the FCA template)
  • Detailed financial proposal, including daily costs.
  • Contacts of three organizations that have recently contracted the consultant to carry out relevant assessment.
  • Budget including VAT
  • Up to 3 examples of recent similar consultancy (from recent assessment work)
  • Up to 3 recommendations from previous contract providers

Please provide all the above documentation in a single consolidated folder.

  1. REPORTING LINES

The consultant/s shall work under the supervision of the FCA and NIS FoundationM&E Managers based in Mogadishu, who will interphase with the Project Managers in the respective project locations on the ground. A strong security management link shall be maintained with the FCA Security Manager based in Mogadishu while in the field, details of which shall be supplied to the successful applicant.

  1. APPLICATION PROCESS

Interested and qualified consultants should send their applications before or by15th March 2019 at 23:59(E.A.T).Please Indicate APPLICATION FOR SOM 11951 COPESA ASSESSMENT on the subject line to the email address below

Procurement.soco@kua.fi

Late, incomplete or partial bids will be rejected.

For any clarifications on the proposed task please send an email to the following address procurement.soco@kua.fi

Annexes

Annex 1: Outline of the technical proposal template

Annex 2: below will be provided to the successful bidder upon signing of the contract

Annex 2: Outline of the inception report template

Annex 3:  Outline of the assessment report template

[1] These target locations may always be diverted to other locations due to government priorities

[2] COPESA assessment will be conducted jointly with NIS Foundation as per agreed TOR which approved by the EU


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