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Assessment on  triple crisis (Covid-19 pandemic, Floods and locust infestation) and its effects on local livelihood conditions in Galmudug State, Somalia

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  • Full-Time

Job Description


Centre for Peace and Democracy (CPD)


Recovery Support Project for Vulnerable Households in Hobyo District

Position Type:

Short-term Consultancy

Study/assessment topic:

Assessment on  triple crisis (Covid-19 pandemic, Floods and locust infestation) and its effects on local livelihood conditions in Galmudug State, Somalia

Position Location:

Hobyo, Adado and Abduwak Districts


15 days

Reporting to:

Project Manager

Working with:

Recovery Project Manager  for CPD and  and DKH’s Somalia Crisis Programme Manager

Starting Date:


  • Introduction

Diakonie-katastrophenhilfe (DKH) is supporting Centre for Peace and Democracy (CPD) to implement various humanitarian and recovery projects within Galmudug State, Somalia. The partnership has implemented a number of humanitarian and transitional development projects in Hobyo, Abduwak, Galkacyo (south), Adado and Dhusamareb districts since 2017.

The first six months of 2020, Somalia has been hit by a triple crisis in the form of locust invasion, COVID-19 pandemic and flash floods. There is also the prediction that the short season rains in October and November will be below average which will add to the burden of the pastoralists who are already affected by the triple crisis. The triple shocks have increasingly affected Central Somalia regions.

There is increasing evidence of climate change effects in Somalia with a call being voiced for a paradigm shift in the way humanitarian response is effected to help improve on response time. It has also become increasingly evident that the frequency of droughts, flooding, and cyclones along the Indian Ocean coast of Somalia notably in the North East of Somalia is wreaking havoc to the population. Cyclical drought and flooding have increased in frequency and intensity, eroding resilience gained overtime. The recent flooding along River Shabelle basin comes only a year after the river completely dried up. This unpredictable patterns only increase the livelihood shocks for the population groups caught in the situation.  The current seasonal short rains (October-November) have been intense in Somalia but some pockets continue to witness less than average rains.

There has been calls for early actions to respond to climate related threats that undermine the economy of Somalia and livelihood of its diverse population groups especially the pastoralists and agro-pastoralist. Information available as collected through satellite imagery by FEWSNET and SWALIM and also through ground resource and livelihood surveys by FSNAU in Somalia have forecasted the start of Deyr seasonal rains in most part of the country, however, through the third week of the month only few areas/regions have reported relative showers. The problem has been acting late to respond to the threats which results to pastoral and farmers settling to destructive coping strategies such as decimation of livestock herds, sell of productive livelihood asset including farm lands and thus leaving a trail of destitute livelihood groups whose only option is to become displaced persons in the urban areas. Early targeted actions can however help stem the threats and add to community and households’ resilience.

Through ‘Recovery Support Project for Vulnerable Households in Hobyo District’project, DKH and CPD proposes to utilize the i study budget in the project to conduct a survey on the effects of  a triple crisis on socio-economic and livelihoods of rural pastoralists in Galmudug State. This is based on the fact that the region faces a triple crisis in form of locust invasion, COVID-19 pandemic and localized flooding. The convergence of the three has the potential to affect local communities and lead to livelihood shocks like never experienced in the State and indeed Central Somalia. The desert locust upsurge has been described as dynamic and fast evolving emergency and therefore it is important to evaluate its impact to the local livelihoods especially given that there is little data on the destruction done to the rangelands which are critical for local pastoralists’ livelihoods.

The survey shall generate data and information on the extent degree of vulnerability to local rural pastoralist livelihoods.

  • Assignment Locations

The survey will be conducted in three districts (Adado, Hobyo and Abduwak) – all in Galmudug State. 

  • Survey Purpose

The purpose of the survey will be to help quantify the effects of the recent shocks brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic, desert locust emergency and recurring floods and conflict on the pastoral livelihood in Galmudug State of Somalia.

Further the assessments findings will: –

  • Fill up on critical information gaps on vulnerability of the affected communities and households as a result of desert locust destruction, COVID-19 pandemic, flooding and resulting conflicts.
  • The survey will further establish the viability of the current methods being employed to address the locust invasion and likely scenarios to local livelihoods if the methods are ineffective.
  • Inform on the expected trends as observed in terms of damages to rangelands as a result of locust invasion,
  • Gather information related to the effect of  COVID-19 pandemic and flash flood induced price increases to local households and providing an analysis that is actionable in supporting effective livelihood support responses that are sustainable (building on resilience).
  • Support an evidence-based decision making in design and implementation of mitigating interventions to support the vulnerable groups through life saving humanitarian interventions based on early action and help their recovery process through transition development.
  • Scope of Work for Consultancy Team

The perception survey consultancy will be expected to undertake the following-:

  • Develop an approach and methodology suitable for the triple crisis assessment.
  • Develop survey tools for use in the core inquiry areas as agreed.
  • Develop a scientific sampling sample for collection of the data from the key inquiry groups.
  • Upload the perception survey questionnaire into KoboConnect App.
  • Recruit and train enumerators on the collection of survey data using KoboConnect Application.
  • Support the field collection of data in the indicated project locations in the 3 Districts of Hobyo, Adado and Abduwak.
  • Undertake analysis of the collected data and prepare a draft report for feedback from CPD and DKH.
  • Methodology
    • Approach

The consultant will collaborate with the stakeholders like the government department and ministry that is in charge of locust response in Galmudug State. The consultant will also work with the National Emergency Coordination Centre to access the latest identified threats and how they relate to pastoralists livelihoods in Galmudug State and especially the identified survey Districts of Hobyo, Adado and Abduwak.  The consultant shall also be expected to indicate how they shall work with the various clusters to determine the threats and also identify proposed interventions by humanitarian organizations working within the 3 identified Districts.

The consultancy is expected to be conversant with the current discussions on the need for early actions and also transitional development as strategies designed to lift populations faced with frequent natural disasters as a result of climate change from dependence to resilience. The current triple crisis calls for approaches tailored to the new paradigm shift in humanitarian and transitional development. The use of Community Driven Development as an approach in seeking long term solutions is among the new tools designed to proactively engage the communities in seeking solutions in problems facing them. The consultant will be required to indicate how they shall utilize the community participatory methods to engage with the communities.

    • Survey Design

The consultancy team shall be required to adapt the perception survey tool used to the project baseline survey. This will mean the toolsused should be capable of capturing the already surveyed areas as well as enhancing the perception in view of the changes that have taken place during the project implementation. The perception survey shall be required to be a participatory and inclusive one to ensure balanced collection of views and also allow for analysis based on the sampled population groups.

The consultants will closely work with the project staff led by Project Manager in Hobyo District to obtain the relevant background documents. CPD will provide key project documents to support in the planning of the assessment. The current relevant documents to the assessment will include COVID-19 survey by NEXUS (a consortium of 9 local NGO where CPD is a member), literature FAO and from Somalia Cash Working Group which includes market assessment reports from WFP.

The data and information obtained from the survey will be quantitatively and qualitatively analyzed. The consultancy assignment will provide an analysis and discussion of facts and data within the assignment context.

    • Sampling Plan and Locations

The consultants will be required to develop a sampling plan for the study that ensures coverage of the communities with elevated vulnerabilities as identified by various assessments in the recent past including by FSNAU in Galmudug State.

The Sampling locations and population groups will be informed by several considerations including the presence of desert locusts (as confirmed by Galmudug State’s Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock) and where previous surveys have identified significant populations of locusts in order to estimate the total infested areas establish the destruction to the rangelands, urban areas with COVID-19 affected households, IDPs affected by conflicts and also vulnerable households as identified by FSNAU in its latest update (Post Gu 2020 report/update). 

The sample for the study will be required to demonstrate inclusivity of the diverse opinion/community groups and also the inclusion of engagement of women, youth and the marginalized in informing the survey. 

  • Key guiding Questions
    • Desert locusts
  • CPD will require a clear mapping and information on trends as currently experienced in relation to the desert locusts and identify areas/settlements that have been affected by the infestation.
  • Where have the locust been sighted, breeding sites, and where reports of locusts have been received from locals, nomads, scouts or agricultural extension agents.
  • What are the identified patterns of the locust infestation so far in the identified Districts and identify their feeding patterns?
  • What are the observed seasonal variations of locust invasion and likely entry locations?
  • Is there vegetation that the locusts seem more attracted to and which are the areas with similar vegetation within the district?
  • What specific actions/intervention have been taken against the locusts towards their eradication at their various life cycle stages?
  • Have the intervention actions as undertaken been effective in containing the locusts in the infested areas within the District?
  • What has been the scale of damage to crops and pasture damage in the locust infested locations and what is the projected loss to livelihoods among the pastoralist and agro pastoralist households in the 3 Districts?
  • What has been the observed effects on livelihoods in areas where the locusts have invaded?
  • How has the cost of living for the households been affected by the locust invasion?
  • Have the communities in the locust infested areas been provided with any kind of recovery support to aid their recovery from the losses incurred by locust destruction?
  • What coping mechanisms have the communities adopted as a result of the effects of the locust invasion and destruction?
    • COVID-19 Pandemic
  • What is the estimated overall caseload of infection and fatalities of COVID-19 pandemic in the 3 target Districts of Hobyo, Adado and Abduwak?
  • What are the current infection trends from COVID-19 testing within the respective Districts?
  • What has been the noted effect of COVID-19 pandemic on the local pastoralists?
  • What has been the most notable effects of the pandemic on local households?
  • What has been the effects of the pandemic on the local supply chain for commercial goods?
  • How has the COVID-19 pandemic affected the local households in accessing essential services like healthcare, water, education etc
  • Has there been a noted price increases in the prices of basic commodities especially food?
  • What has been the level of fall in remittances at the height of the pandemic and are there signs that of improvement in the overall amount of remittances from abroad?
  • How are the market prices trend for basic foods since COVID-19 pandemic spread to Galmudug State?
  • Has there been an observed fall in imports of basic goods and food commodities?
  • Which groups or population segments have been most affected the COVID-19 pandemic?
  • What has been the observed malnutrition rates trend among children under-5 years and the pregnant women since the beginning of COVID-19 pandemic?
  • What particular household and individual interventions are most suited for those affected by the pandemic?
  • What supportive actions are required to support those adversely affected by the pandemic?
  • What will be the most likely effects on the local pastoralist especially the vulnerable should there be a second COVID-19 pandemic wave in the study Districts?
    • Flood
  • Which areas within the District experienced flooding during the recent two rain seasons i.e. the Deyr 2019 and Gu 2020?
  • What has been the effects of local flooding in the 3 target Districts?
  • Which settlements have been affected by flooding and what were the noted effects of the flooding on the basic commodities supply chain?
  • How has been the local markets price trends for basic commodities including food as a result of flooding? 
  • Information or reported Deyr rains and where?
    • Conflict
  • Has there been any cases of conflict affecting the 3 target Districts of Hobyo, Adado and Abduwak in the recent past (one year max)?
  • What are the major drivers of conflict as observed in the cited conflict situations?
  • Which conflicts have been resolved and which ones are still awaiting resolution?
  • Are there conflict fault lines within the 3 Districts?
  • Presentation of Survey findings

The consultant shall prepare an assessment report working closely with CPD and DKH Somalia project team. The report will document findings and provide a benchmark for measuring outcomes of Project interventions as defined by the broader thematic areas required.

  • Timelines for consultancy

Deliverables and Schedule

Proposed Dates


Selection of an assessment consultancy firm

26th October 2020


Inception Report (with detailed assessment approach and methodology).

3rd November 2020


Field Work (Data collection and Analysis).

19th November 2020


Presentation of main findings and recommendations.

23rd November 2020


Draft assessment report.

26th November 2020


Final Assessment Report.

30th November 2020

    • Required Consultancy Team

The survey’s undertaking will require a team of two consultants to help undertake the assignments within the required period of 15 days. The consultancy team shall also be supported in undertaking the required fieldwork by a team of enumerators who shall work in the field covering the 3 identified districts Hobyo, Adado and Abduwak.

    • Lead Consultant

The Lead consultant should meet the minimum requirements described below.  Key qualifications shall include: –

  • Have a University degree in Social Science or any other related fields
  • Previous work undertaken in pastoralist livelihoods and conflict analysis in Somalia,
  • Experience in undertaking perception or similar surveys in the past especially within Somalia.
  • Knowledge in conflict sensitive approach to programming.
  • Capacity to undertake concise and informative analysis based on data and information collected.
    • Assistant Consultant

The Assistant Consultant should meet the following qualifications and experience: –

  • Have a university degree/diploma??
  • Have previous experience in data collection in conflict settings.
  • Have previous knowledge in the use of KoboCollect tool kit and functionality.
  • Be versed with data collection and analysis.
    • Assignment Deliverables
  • Approved perception survey tools for use in the core inquiry areas as agreed.
  • Inception Report: includes initial work plan and proposal (Expression of Interest) for the perception survey outlining the proposed methodology, survey tools, process of data collection and analysis.
  • Draft report of the perception survey for the feedback and comments from CPD Team.
  • Presentation on the main findings of the perception survey at field level involving project teams, community representatives and local authorities.
  • Final Report in English which includes:
  • Introduction;
  • Summary of Findings
  • Methodology;
  • Findings of the Perception Survey based on the quantified data as analyzed for the various responses:
  • Conclusions and recommendations as per the program outputs and activities;
  • Electronic annexes with the site-by-site raw data used for the analysis.
    • Consultancy Duration

The consultancy will be for 15 days including the travel days. This will be applicable to the Lead and Assistant Consultant.

    • Rate of Payment

The daily rate of payment for consultant shall be a competitive one. 

    • How to Apply

Qualified candidates/consultancy firms are requested to electronically submit their Expression of Interest (EOI), CVs and Cover letters to the Human Resource Manager, Centre for Peace and Democracy (CPD) using the following email address:- procument@cpd-africa.org by 25th October 2020.

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